Every Wednesday during the season, we’ll be looking at the Top 5 Texas College Football Games of the week. Breaking down who will win, who will lose, but most importantly…who will COVER.
Odds are at the time this was posted and are subject to change before kickoff.
Montana St (0-0) @ Texas Tech (0-0)
Saturday, August 31
3:00 pm CST – FSN
Texas Tech -25, o/u 60
Most of the Week One games for college teams in Texas aren’t exactly must see TV. I actually had to debate between this game and things like Rice vs. Army and TCU vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff. However, what ended up intriguing me about this game is it’ll be our first look at new Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells and his gun slinging offense. I admittedly know nothing at all about Montana St, other than I’m pretty sure they are from Montana and they aren’t a D-1 school. But here’s what I do know, Matt Wells put up points at Utah State last year, a lot of them. And if there is one thing they love in Lubbock it’s points. Matt will be looking to impress the home crowd and the easiest way to do that is light up the scoreboard.
*Take OVER 60 in this one. I’m pretty sure Tech will get there on their own.
SMU (0-0) @ Arkansas St (0-0)
Saturday, August 31
6:00 pm CST – ESPN+
Ark St – 2.5, o/u 57
This game probably should have been number 5 on the list, or really not even on the list at all. But it sneaks into the four spot this week because quite frankly it’s the only single digit line of the week, so, maybe it will at least be a competitive game? However, most people probably won’t even be able to watch it, or even make the effort to watch it anyway. I’m betting the game so I did make the effort, only to find out it’s being played on ESPN+. I have no clue what the hell that is and made no further effort from there. Anyway, here’s what you need to know about this game.
Both schools have brand new QBs under center this year. Logan Bonner for the Red Wolves (I would not be doing my job if I didn’t look up the mascot and Red Wolves sounds pretty badass), and of course SMU has Shane Buechele, fresh off his transfer from UT. Having two inexperienced QBs going at it in this game makes me like the under here, especially if Buechele plays as shitty as he did while at UT. But besides the under, I actually love the mighty Red Wolves of Arkansas State in this game. They have a stud running back, have a much more experienced receiving corps, are playing at home and without a doubt have the better macot. Red Wolves over Ponies every day of the week.
*Take the Red Wolves of ARKANSAS STATE -2.5. I think they pull out a late win at home with just enough room to cover.
Texas State (0-0) @ Texas AM (0-0)
Thursday, August 29
7:30 pm CST – SEC Network
Texas AM -33.5, o/u 56
Two Texas teams in one game I do love, but that’ll probably be the only highlight of this game. The good news though is the game is on THURSDAY night. So, while the two teams playing don’t exactly bring the heat, don’t act like you won’t be watching it after being deprived of football the last eight months. Now, a lot of people are saying the Aggie’s attention will be on their big game against Clemson next week so to take Texas State +33.5. But, I disagree. I think Aggies cover and cover big. Which means they will rest their starters on defense as soon as they can. Why? Because they will need everyone healthy, along with the 85 Bears defensive roster, to have any chance against Trevor Lawrence and Clemson next week. And while the Aggies are sure to rest their offensive starters as well, if there is one thing I know about Coach Jimbo, it’s the dude can score points with just about anyone on the field. Combine that with the Aggies playing their second/third team defense for most of the second half, and the Over dropping from 59 to 56 earlier in the week, I think the over is a MUST in this game.
*Take OVER 56 in this one. Texas State will score just enough second half points to get there.
Louisiana Tech (0-0) @ Texas (0-0)
Saturday, August 31
7:00 pm CST – Longhorn Network
Texas -20.5, o/u 55
The general rule on CTH (Coach Tom Herman) is bet on him when he is the underdog. The guy is a machine as an underdog and on the flip side he is absolutely abysmal when laying the points. Add that with his last two shitty home opener games, with the fact that everyone in the world thinks UT will be looking ahead to LSU next week, and Louisiana Tech seems like a lock. Well, for those exact reasons I love Texas this week. As a homer, I assure you my least favorite thing on earth is betting Texas and laying the points, especially 20+. But hear me out. After the last two season openers CTH is not going to allow Texas to overlook this team or sleep walk through this game. Zero chance. Hell, he is even refusing to speak about LSU and has Matthew McConaughey giving inspirational speeches about focusing on just week one. I’m actually afraid CTH is going to keep the starters in too long to prove a point. Or Ehlinger is going to go full meat head and will be truck sticking every linebacker in sight to shove Terry Bradshaw’s comments this off-season down his old, drunk throat. That’s bad if you are a Texas fan but good if you have the Horns by less than three touchdowns.
*Take TEXAS -20.5. Texas rolls this week by building a big lead early and never letting it go.
Houston (0-0) @ OU (0-0)
Sunday, September 1
6:30 pm CST – ABC
OU -25, o/u 82
This easily makes our list as the best game of the week for five reasons:
1) It’s on ABC which is the only Texas team that can make that claim week one
2) It’s the stand alone game on Sunday night.
3) The O/U is 82. Anytime an O/U is above 80 I’m in.
4) Dana Holgorsen’s mullet.
5) Jalen Hurts first game for OU
I think this is the best QB matchup of the entire opening weekend, not just in Texas but in College Football period. Obviously, all eyes will be on Jalen Hurts. Personally I’m not that impressed. Sure he won at Alabama and looked good doing it at times but he had Nick Saban and the Alabama defense which is massive help. Keep in mind the dude is replacing BACK TO BACK Heisman winners. That’s insane. Let’s see how good Lincoln Riley does with a little less talent. Also, don’t sleep on my man D’Eriq King for Houston. Most people probably don’t know who this is, well, you should. First of all his name is D’Eriq, so automatically I’m a fan. This guy was putting up PlayStation numbers last year before he got hurt. And that was with Opie Applewhite running the show. Now I get a healthy D’Eriq with Dana Holgorsen against an OU defense??? Yes, please! The over is probably an easy winner too but no need to sweat it out.
*Take HOUSTON +25 this week and have your kids college paid for by Monday morning. I think Houston keeps this game MUCH closer than 25 points and might even have a chance in the 4th Quarter.
Record Last Week: 0-0
Record for the Year: 0-0
Remember…Life’s too short to bet the Under.
As always, good luck, bet smart, and let’s go 5-0!