We look at the Top 5 Texas College Football Games each week on the schedule. We will break down who will win, who will lose, but most importantly…who will COVER.
We are coming off a brutal 2-3 week after losing Texas by half a point, Rice by one point and Clemson on a garbage TD with less than 10 seconds left in the game. Unfortunately, that’s gambling. It’s not for the faint of heart. Fortunately, for you and unfortunately for my bookie, I am really feeling this weekslineup.
Odds are at the time this was posted and are subject to change.
#5
Texas (1-1) @ Rice (0-2)
Saturday, September 14th
7:00 pm CST – CBSS
Texas -32, o/u 56
Rice clearly sucks, we learned that last week. However, Texas is in a major let down spot this week. It’s going to be almost impossible for them to be motivated against a lowly Rice team after the LSU game. Herman will do everything in his power but it simply won’t work. You are talking about 18 to 21 year old kids. When you ask one of the hottest girls in school to Prom and she says yes, it’s really hard to be excited about taking her ugly sister instead because she got food poising. Sure, you still show up, buy the corsage and go the dance, but all you can think about is how her hot sister isn’t there. That’s Texas this week. They will build a big lead because they are just more talented but they will rest their starters in the second half and 32 points is just too many to expect Texas to cover. Throw in the fact that Herman has never been a great cover coach in big spreads. All signs point to Rice plus the points.
Take RICE +32 this week and know that the backdoor cover is coming late.
#4
TCU (1-0) @ Purdue (1-1)
Saturday, September 14th
6:30 pm CST – Big Ten Network
TCU -2.5, o/u 51
In their first game this year TCU’s defense only gave up 7 points. Also, in their first game this year, TCU also played Arkansas Pine Bluff. While Purdue isn’t the Kansas City Chiefs they aren’t Arkansas Pine Bluff either. In Purdue’s last 5 games dating back to last year, the total points scored have been 68, 65, 77, 49 and 91. Purdue has a really good offense and a really bad defense. That math is very simple, it equals lots of points. The total in this game is way too low.
Take OVER 51 and you probably will get there by the end of the third quarter.
#3
North Texas (1-1) @ Cal (2-0)
Saturday, September 14th
3:15 pm CST – PAC 12 Network
Cal -14, o/u 50
Cal just upset No. 14 in the country Washington last week. North Texas on the other hand, just got blown out by SMU last week. So why is this line only 14? Does that seem really shady to anyone else?Because it sure as hell did to me. But I dug deeper. I went to the tape and realized Washington isn’t the 14th best team in the country. Not even close. Cal does have a good defense and played solid ball against the Huskies, but unfortunately for Cal, their offense is pathetic. They only beat UC Davis in week one 27-13. I also love the fact that Cal is in a letdown spot after their “major upset” last week. This will be an ugly low scoring game, with an inflated line and a team with false confidence. I’ll gladly take the two touchdowns.
Take NORTH TEXAS +14 this week in what should be a close game.
#2
Army (1-1) @ UTSA (1-1)
Saturday, September 14th
2:30 pm CST – NFL Network
Army -17, o/u 45
Army just took Michigan to overtime in the Big House and quite frankly should have won. UTSA on the flipside just lost to Baylor by 50. Another play that seems so obvious I’ll take the other side of it. UTSA won’t score very much, but neither will Army. The O/U is 45 in the game for a reason. Army is going to slow it down, run the ball and play defense. Army also has a tendency to play to the level of their competition, both good and bad. Normally, I would say this is a letdown spot for Army after last week but this is the fucking United States Army, they are above that shit. God Bless these guys and I hope they win, I just don’t think it will be by more than two touchdowns.
Take UTSA +17 and make money knowing that you can still love America.
And your Kids 529 Plan Game of the Week…
#1
Washington State (2-0) @ Houston (1-1)
Friday, September 13th
8:15 pm CST – ESPN
Washington St -9, o/u 75
We have already won a 529 Game this year on Houston in Week One when they covered against OU. This week we are looking at a different side of the game. Look, I could rattle off a bunch of different stats and reasons, but let’s be real with ourselves, its Mike Leach vs Dana Holgorsen and the game is being played on Friday the 13th . Don’t be an idiot. They might hit this thing at halftime. This one is really simple.
Take OVER 75 sit back and enjoy the show.
Record Last Week: 2-3
Record for the Year: 4-6
529 Plan Game of the Week: 1-1
Remember…Life’s too short to bet the Under
As always, good luck, bet smart, and let’s go 5-0!
Until Next Week,
Dan Daly (@_DanDaly)
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