We look at the Top 5 Texas College Football Games each week on the schedule. Breaking down who will win, who will lose, but most importantly…who will COVER.
Odds are at the time this was posted and are subject to change throughout the week.
#5
Baylor (2-0) @ Rice (0-3)
Saturday, September 21st
6:00 pm CST – CBSS
Baylor -26.5, o/u 58
Baylor is going to score early and often on Rice just like Texas did. The difference is that Baylor isn’t going to let off the gas as early as Texas did (and still covered 32.5). Matt Rhule is trying to rebuild a culture at Baylor and part of that means destroying inferior teams. They beat SFA by 39 and UTSA by 49. Rice might actually be worse than both so covering less than four touchdowns won’t be a problem. I like the over in this game too, as I think Baylor will probably get there on their own but there is no need to worry about it when you can just take Baylor knowing they are going to win by five or six touchdowns.Â
Take BAYLOR -26.5 and watch them light up the scoreboard against another inferior opponent
#4
Houston (1-2) @ Tulane (2-1)
Thursday, September 19th
7:00 pm CST – ESPN
Tulsa – 5.5, o/u 56
Houston has played two good teams, OU and Washington State…they covered in both. Tulane has played one good team, Auburn, and they failed to cover. Tulane is not in the same hemisphere as Washington St or OU. I’m not so sure that Houston doesn’t win this game outright. The best player on the field in New Orleans this week will be D’Eriq King…and there isn’t a close second. I’ll gladly take the team that has played the harder schedule with the best player on either team in a game that will have little to home field advantage.Â
Take HOUSTON +5.5 this week and don’t be surprised if they win outright
#3
SMU (3-0) @ TCU (2-0)
Saturday, September 21st
2:30 pm CST – FS1
TCU -9.5, o/u 55
The last time SMU started 3-0 was when they paying players, Regan was President and the hot sorority girls are now grandmothers. The year…1984. Well, they aren’t going 4-0. SMU is good, but they aren’t that good. TCU went into Lafayette, IN last week and beat down a pretty decent Purdue team by 21. Do I think SMU is better than Purdue? In a word…No. In the last 15 years SMU is 1-14 against TCU and 13 of the 14 losses have come by more than 10 points. So I will gladly lay the 9.5 points this week knowing a double digit win is eminent.Â
Take TCU -9.5 this week and watch the same movie, just a different year.Â
#2
Oklahoma State (3-0) @ Texas (2-1)
Saturday, September 21st
6:30 pm CST – ABC
Texas -5, o/u 73
Oklahoma State has played Oregon State, and two teams that Westlake High School could beat in Montana and Tulsa. Congratulations on being 3-0. Not. However, Oklahoma St is also 7-2 against the Longhorns in their last nine, including four straight in Austin. That’s a little more relevant. First of all, I don’t acknowledge anything that happened during the Charlie Strong era, which in my brain is just a black hole in the record books. So let’s erase two of those loses in Austin.  Second, the Texas home field advantage during that span was basically non-existent. Its 2019 now, Charlie is gone, thank god, and the crowd in Austin is back. Zero chance Texas loses this game, so the question then becomes, do they cover? This line opened at 7 and has dropped two points already. I think it will come down even lower as people will see the history and take fighting mullets from Stillwater. Let them. Wait this one out at long as you can, let the line drop and then hammer the horns right before kickoff.Â
Take TEXAS -5 this week and watch the losing streak coming to an end. (Theirs and mine) Â
And your Kids 529 Plan Game of the Week…
#1
Auburn (3-0) @ Texas AM (2-1)
Saturday, September 21st
2:30 pm CST – CBS
Texas AM – 4, o/u 48
Texas AM is going to go 8-5 this year. How do I know that, because Texas AM has gone
8-5 since the beginning of time. SWC, Big 12, SEC…Kevin Sumlin, RC Slocum, Mike Sherman or Jimbo Fisher. Doesn’t matter where they play who the coach is or how much they pay him, Aggie goes 8-5. So with that in mind let’s do some math. They already lost to Clemson (1 loss), they will get run over by Bama (2 losses), LSU will run them out of the field (3 losses), UGA will demolish them (4 losses) and that leaves one more. And that comes this weekend against Auburn. The most comical part of this game is that Auburn is actually GETTING points in a game they are going to win. That’s pretty simple math to me. I get the team that is going to win AND I get points…yes please!
Take AUBURN +4 this week and don’t be afraid to throw a little ML action on the side.
BONUS Pick: Our favorite non-Texas game of the week…Wisconsin -3.5 against Michigan.
Record Last Week: 1-4
Record for the Year: 5-10
529 Plan Game of the Week: 1-2
As always, good luck, bet smart, and let’s go 5-0!
Until Next Week,
Dan Daly (@Â_DanDaly)
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